An odd musical year marks 2008 Tony nominations

It's been an odd year for musicals on Broadway. Big, ballyhooed shows fizzled with the critics, little ones earned cheers but not sold-out houses, and the toughest ticket turned out to be a nearly 60-year-old musical that has audiences swooning over lush, lyrical, good old-fashioned romance. What this means for the 2008 Tony Award nominations — to be announced Tuesday — suggests that the largest collector of nominations could be ''South Pacific,'' Lincoln Center Theater's lavish revival of the Rodgers and Hammerstein classic, first seen on Broadway in 1949.

Look for the show to nab nominations in the musical-performance categories, most emphatically for stars Kelli O'Hara and Paulo Szot, as well as production design — sets, costumes, lighting and sound. And it should provide an interesting fight in the musical-revival category, with its likely opponents ''Gypsy'' and ''Sunday in the Park With George.''

Uncertainty is always part of every nomination day, this year particularly in the best musical category. ''In the Heights,'' the Latin-flavored salute to the residents of Upper Manhattan, and ''Passing Strange,'' a thinly veiled rock autobiography, are likely candidates. Both were blessed by reviewers but have not turned into hot tickets like those perennially difficult-to-see shows, ''Wicked'' and ''Jersey Boys.''

That leaves two more best-musical slots to be filled.

Will ''Young Frankenstein'' and ''The Little Mermaid'' — much anticipated before they opened and much reviled after they did — get them? Probably not. What could sneak in: ''Xanadu,'' the quirky little musical that fashioned gold out of the most leaden movie musical ever made, and ''A Catered Affair,'' the spare, almost severe Harvey Fierstein-John Bucchino musical about a family's wedding-day consternation.

In the best play category, there is no doubt that one of the nominees will be ''August: Osage County,'' Tracy Letts' saga of a dysfunctional Oklahoma family lorded over by an acidulous matriarch (played by Deanna Dunagan), which already has the Pulitzer Prize for drama. And expect more nominations. Dunagan heads a cast and a production from Chicago's Steppenwolf Theatre Company that most likely will be studded with nominees.

Other likely best-play possibilities: ''The Seafarer,'' Conor McPherson's devilish Christmas tale, and Tom Stoppard's examination of turbulent Czech history called ''Rock 'n' Roll.'' Or could ''The 39 Steps,'' a stage spoof of Alfred Hitchcock's '30s film classic, David Mamet's blistering comedy ''November'' or even ''Thurgood,'' a one-man look at Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall, sneak in?

Laurence Fishburne, who plays Marshall, is among the many possibilities for an actor-play nomination, along with Kevin Kline, the swashbuckling title character in ''Cyrano de Bergerac''; Mark Rylance, ''Boeing-Boeing''; Patrick Stewart, ''Macbeth''; and Ben Daniels, ''Les Liaisons Dangereuses.'' And you can't rule out Jim Norton for ''The Seafarer,'' Norbert Leo Butz for ''Is He Dead?'' or Ian McShane of ''The Homecoming'' — even though all three plays have closed.

O'Hara should be joined in the actress-musical race by Patti LuPone, the fierce Madame Rose of ''Gypsy'' — with other slots probably filled by Faith Prince, ''A Catered Affair''; Jenna Russell, ''Sunday in the Park With George''; and maybe Kerry Butler, the roller-skating heroine of ''Xanadu.''

Cheyenne Jackson, Butler's co-star in ''Xanadu,'' might gain an actor-musical nomination with other leading contenders including Lin-Manuel Miranda, composer and star of ''In the Heights''; Stew, who did the same for ''Passing Strange''; Tom Wopat, the beleaguered husband in ''A Catered Affair''; and perhaps Roger Bart of ''Young Frankenstein.''